To Hell with looking at the stock markets……
Watch the price of oil. A steady rise in prices means recovery. A quick spike back over 100 means crash. Pretty consistent history here. Weak dollar kills jobs and causes commodity speculation.
Our manufacturing overseas keeps profits up for big business and their stock prices rise even as they kill our middle class. These profits, denominated in dollars, will come home. As this money enters the economy banks have to give the money away as fast as they can. So, get ready for a borrowing binge and stock market upsurge and the end of the recession. The money these guys have accumulated will be repatriated as it’s not much good sitting around as prices rise. The important thing then is inflation rearing it’s head and reigniting the next boom.
Happens every time it’s been tried. The big thing to remember is the bigger the government involvment the bigger the boom and bust. It’s really get big now. Trillions sloshing about in the world economy with no place to go as money always goes to it’s most profitable area eventually.
Today it’s commodities. Soon real estate and a huge run up in stocks. At one time it was tulips for Christ sake. What’s next? Won’t be manufacturing as that takes time a quality experienced work force, near slave labor and expertise.
I plan on being ready. No personal debt for toys and junk. Keeping my credit score over 700. Lining up lines of credit especially with the credit union as they are portfolio lenders and are much easier to deal with. For the next couple of years cash will still be king but it doesn’t have to be mine.
Of course, this doesn’t mean that we are out of the woods yet. I’m betting Wall Street and the banks get rid of as many of the Democrats this year and we get a more business orientated Congress.
Until the next bigger bust it’s going to be one hell of a ride.