Archive for October 2009
The future is not that complicated. Expect the depression to continue. Government will keep killing interest rates and force banks to trickle out their foreclosures. Which, by the way, will accelerate starting next year as the more credit worthy buyers from the boom get clobbered with huge interest rate increases.
Eventually we hit massive sales in the 401k sector as the geezers sell out to save their asses and their kids homes bringing down the printing press money fiasco.
Of course, the government then has to give everybody a check. To stay elected this is guaranteed.
Those of us living debt free and with good credit and sufficient cash will be able to buy this stuff for pennies on the dollar
So what’s next? A lot of the economic cycle is self-reinforcing (the change in inventories is one example). So it is not completely out of the question that we see a multi-year economic boom. Higher asset prices, lower inventories, fewer writedowns all lead to higher lending capacity, higher cyclical output, more employment opportunities and greater business and consumer confidence. If employment turns up appreciably before these cyclical agents lose steam, you have the makings of a multi-year recovery. This is how every economic cycle develops. This one is no different in this regard.
However, longer-term things depend entirely on government because we are in a balance sheet recession. Ray Dalio and David Rosenberg make this case well in the previous quotes I supplied, but it was a recent post about Richard Koo from Prieur du Plessis which got me to write this post. His post, “Koo: Government fulfilling necessary function” reads as follows:
According to Koo, American consumers are suffering from a balance sheet problem and will not increase consumption until their personal finances are back in order. The banks are not lending mainly because nobody wants to borrow and, furthermore, the banks want to build their own balance sheets (raise cash) and get rid of toxic garbage…
Again, when asked what would happen if the government cuts back on its fiscal stimulus, Koo replies: “Until the private sector is finished repairing its balance sheets, if the government tries to cut its spending, we’re going to fall into the same trap Franklin Roosevelt fell into in 1937 (a crushing bear market) and Prime Minister Hashimoto fell into in 1997, exactly 70 years later.
“The economy will collapse again and the second collapse is usually far worse than the first. And the reason is that, after the first collapse, people tend to blame themselves. They say, ‘I shouldn’t have played the bubble. I shouldn’t have borrowed money to invest – to speculate on these things.’
This view of a second, more serious downturn mirrors the one I wrote of when I wrote about high structural unemployment last week. And, again, it is predicated on what government does. I wrote last November that if government stops the support, recession is going to happen.
The U.S. economy cannot possibly work itself out of the greatest financial crisis in some 70-odd years in a mere 4 years and then expect to raise taxes on the middle class without a major recessionary relapse.
Yea, what ever.
After a few years the governments going to have everyone “working” for them or at least getting a check, and I can’t help wondering how long that can last. Just the idea that milions of people have been drawing unemployment checks and living in their government guaranteed mortgaged houses tells us that it’s planned.
Think the politicians want you scared and dependent on their” rescue plans”?
Fear that the economy might fall back into recession is compelling Congress to extend unemployment benefits and incentives for homebuying that lawmakers hope will help sustain growth.
The threat of a relapse in housing has prompted Senate leaders to start negotiating an extension of the first-time homebuyers’ tax credit, now set to expire Nov. 30. They hope to attach the measure to legislation extending soon-to-expire unemployment benefits and then pass both by the end of the week.
Economists are telling lawmakers that, with unemployment approaching 10 percent, an extension of benefits for the long-term unemployed would help prevent a collapse in consumer spending. In addition, the housing market is seen as a key ingredient of the economic revival.
“Unemployment and housing conditions could face further deterioration” without further actions by Congress, said Frank Lee, an economic analyst with CreditSights Inc.
Mighty powerful computers on board if it takes that long to realize they were past there destination. I think they were “busy”, alright. Heh heh.
down on texting while driving, it now faces the question of how to handle two airline pilots who admit to computing while flying.
The National Transportation Safety Board said Monday that the pilots of a Northwest Airlines flight that overshot its destination airport by 150 miles last week say they did not fall asleep at the wheel but were distracted while reading their laptop computers, in violation of airline rules.
“This may be the ultimate case of distracted driving, only this time it was distracted flying,” said Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota Democrat and a member of the Commerce, Science and Transportation subcommittee on aviation operations, safety and security. “The pilots should have been focused on safely steering Flight 188 home, instead of checking crew schedules.
Kind of like… no it’s exactly the same, as any religious belief, we know that climate change is bad because…
Well, because…. all these government paid scientists say so. And by the Goddess, Gaia, we need to do something about it.
Like close down the oil industry.
These fuckers are nuts!!
CONVENTIONAL wisdom suggests that the prospect of Congress passing a comprehensive climate change bill soon is rapidly approaching zero. The divisions in our country on how to deal with climate change are deep. Many Democrats insist on tough new standards for curtailing the carbon emissions that cause global warming. Many Republicans remain concerned about the cost to Americans relative to the environmental benefit and are adamant about breaking our addiction to foreign sources of oil.
However, we refuse to accept the argument that the United States cannot lead the world in addressing global climate change. We are also convinced that we have found both a framework for climate legislation to pass Congress and the blueprint for a clean-energy future that will revitalize our economy, protect current jobs and create new ones, safeguard our national security and reduce pollution.
Our partnership represents a fresh attempt to find consensus that adheres to our core principles and leads to both a climate change solution and energy independence. It begins now, not months from now — with a road to 60 votes in the Senate.
One less gangster. Need a few thousand more and we can start a new Republic and get rid of the fascist in charge of our money.
Change we can believe in.
PALM BEACH, Fla. — Authorities say Jeffry Picower, a Florida philanthropist and a friend of Bernard Madoff for decades, has died. He was 67.
Picower was the former New York lawyer and accountant alleged to have extracted billions of dollars from the Bernard Madoff investment scheme.
Authorities say he was found at the bottom of his Palm Beach home’s pool Sunday afternoon by his wife and could not be revived by Palm Beach fire rescue workers. Picower was transported to Good Samaritan Hospital where he was pronounced dead at about 1:30 p.m.
Old Nixon pulled the plug on the Bretton Woods Agreement bringing on the necessity of fiat money diplomacy in order to keep our military intact and in place everywhere on the planet. Unfortunately this requires a lot of money. More than we can generate with a tax base that consists mostly of working stiffs slaving away to buy “consumable” junk with little intrinsic value.
After the political left completely took over the Dem’s party big business began to defend themselves by shipping manufactoring overseas. No taxes, no “liveable” wages, no polution controls,no unions, no nosy government regulators that don’t stay bought, and you get tax free trips abroad.
Of course this requires big time “defense”spending.
Which leads to the Republicans and many old time Dem’s scaring everyone to death that little brown men in sampans or, now days, clutching the Koran driving stolen airplanes, will invade and make everyone quit paying for all this bullshit.
We know who has won the arguement so far. As long as the politicians play by the rules they stay in those cushy jobs . We must have a huge military based all over the globe to save western capitalism. The guys calling the shots have all the money.
Until the Commies take over through debt collecting, that is, heh heh.
Nixon Killed America
Posted by Lew Rockwell on October 24, 2009 06:23 AM
Hans Hoppe makes the point in Salamanca that historians will look back on August 15, 1971, as the beginning of the end for the US empire. That was the day when Dick Nixon—by dictatorial fiat—severed the final tie between the dollar and gold. Nixon thus inaugurated a world monetary system that was unprecedented in the annals of mankind: pure fiat money, with central banks unconstrained in their money printing. It has lasted 38 years, but is clearly in its death throes, just like the US empire
Finally a candidate who’s quiet, unassuming, obviously not on the take.
What’s not to like?
October 21, 2009
Finally, a Political Candidate Who Will Get My Vote
Posted by David Kramer on October 21, 2009 08:30 AM
BRIDGEPORT MAN TO STAY ON BALLOT DESPITE DEATH
The name of Jerry A. Nicola will remain on Bridgeport’s Nov. 3 ballot as the Republican candidate for mayor despite his death on Sunday of cancer, Montgomery County Voter Services Director Joseph Passarella said yesterday. The last day for withdrawing the name of a candidate was Sept. 17, the last day for naming a substitute was Sept. 21, and absentee ballots were sent out weeks ago, Passarella said. “We’ve already printed the ballots and programmed the machines – it’s too late in the game” for any change, he said.
Talk about the perfect political candidate for a voluntaryist.
[Thanks to Jonathan Pearson]