Mrcauser’s Weblog

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China is doomed……

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We have a tendency to believe that the Chinese are monolithic. Not true. They have many factions working at cross purposes.

Imagine 100 million unemployed. Mostly young males with out women.

Get the idea.

Let alone centuries of racial, religious, and political differences that have been buried by totalitarian rule.

It is more reasonable to expect several different China’s to emerge.

But becoming a superpower?

China will be hard pressed to feed their population in the next few years. Let alone suppress the masses of disaffected.

Expect Islam to conquer all is more realistic.

When Giants Fall: The Tectonic Shift

The Tectonic Shift

I am not in the camp that believes China is set to snatch the leadership baton from the United States and become the next sole superpower — at least, not in the short run.

Among other things, our rival to the east will have its hands full for quite some time as it tries to reorient its economy towards domestic consumption and come to grips with the environmental and social fallout caused by years of helter-skelter industrialization.

That said, I do believe that America’s growing loss of influence will, over the time and to a great extent, be China’s gain.

According to Dilip Hiro, writing in an essay for entitled “Defying the Economic Odds,” it appears that the Chinese themselves are cognizant of — and keen to capitalize on — this evolving reality.

The World Melts Down, China Grows

In the midst of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, a new world order is emerging — with its center gravitating towards China. The statistics speak for themselves. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) will shrink by an alarming 1.3% this year. Yet, defying this global trend, China expects an annual economic growth rate of 6.5% to 8.5%. During the first quarter of 2009, the world’s leading stock markets combined fell by 4.5%. In contrast, the Shanghai stock exchange index leapt by a whopping 38%. In March, car sales in China hit a record 1.1 million, surpassing the U.S. for the third month in a row.

Written by mrcauser

May 5, 2009 at 7:48 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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