Mrcauser’s Weblog

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Too early in the cycle for Depression…..

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WE only have wait until my generation to starts taking out their money from the stock market to live on. We are still working but over the next 10 years we bail. No more tax incentives to stay in the market. To old and crippled to work. God knows Social Security can’t keep us in the style we are accustomed to.

Goodbye DOW.

What results is that we have to take over oil countries to stave off the big “D”.Printing and borrowing money will work for awhile, not well, but will keep the rich in power long enough to get the Empire off shore before we murder them .

Where it goes seems to be in question.

From Great Britain then to America, now where? I think they blew it by outsourcing our manufacturing. Even ruling classes make mistakes.

If not we would still be Romans.

History, remember that class?, reminds us that broke dicks only take over their energy, food, and real estate with military excursions. Not good plan for long. After a awhile it cost more in real wealth than we get.
In turn causing societal collapse and bad accents.

Of course, in truth, capitalism breeds it’s own destruction. If you share the wealth too thinly you break you working class into competing for scraps. Your elites end up haggling for political advantage to get access to dwindling resources. Dog eat dog ensues.

On the other hand, keep the wealth to the elites and the working classes break out the the guillotines.

Not good for ruling class  if you know what I mean.

However, if your working class can be kept productive (IE making things) a society stay manageable. Instead of squabbling over welfare checks, bailout funds and government payola we invest in our future. Taking care of our children, old fogies, and damsels in distress.  keeping the elites in yachts, cigars and pyramid schemes.

Not bankrupting the universe if you follow me.

Those of us who supported the Empire I guess should of known better. People are people and they really never change.

Technically the word Depression is to prissy.

 Bet on China eating our  lunch. They got what it takes. Murderous elites. Unlike the Bushes, Clintons and Obamas these guys know how to straighten out the mud people baby.

It could be a “Dark Age.”

RGE – Interview with U.S News & World Report: “The $700 Billion Bailout Isn’t Enough” and One Third Probability of a Japanese-style L-shaped Stagnation

Are we headed for a depression?

I don’t believe we are going to be in a depression—we could end up like Japan that had essentially economic stagnation for a decade with deflation. You know, the “L”-shaped recession. At this point the “U”-shaped recession could turn into an “L”-shaped recession if we don’t fix the financial system, and the credit crisis becomes worse and if we don’t get a massive fiscal stimulus. So, a lot depends on our policy reaction. If our policy reaction is appropriate, by 2010 there will be some recovery of growth. The only risk is that the recovery of growth could be so weak that it feels like a recession even though we are technically out of it. So there is a risk of something like a Japanese-style, multiyear economic stagnation. I would not rule it out, but it is not my benchmark scenario. I think there is a one-third probability it will end up that way, but a two-thirds probability that we will end up in a severe, two-year-long recession. And that would be by any standard the worst recession that the U.S. has experienced in the last 60 years.


Written by mrcauser

December 20, 2008 at 8:19 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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